Median US inflation expectations for the year ahead held steady at 3.9% in October 2026, unchanged from September and remaining at their highest level of 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Expected price changes over the next year fell by 0.6 percentage points to 4.2% for gasoline, and were unchanged at 5.5% for food. By contrast, respondents anticipated higher price increases in several categories: expected price growth rose by 0.1 percentage point to 9.3% for medical care, by 0.1 percentage point to 7.6% for college education, and by 0.9 percentage point to 7.7% for rent.
Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0%, slightly below the 12‑month trailing average of 3.1%. Expectations at longer horizons were also stable, with three‑year‑ahead inflation expectations at 3.3% and five‑year‑ahead expectations at 3.0%.
Elsewhere in the survey, earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6%. The perceived probability of higher unemployment rose by 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, its highest level since April 2020, while expected growth in household income edged down by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%.
