The National Bank of Romania left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% on November 12, in line with expectations, while also maintaining the Lombard lending facility at 7.50% and the deposit facility at 5.50%. The decision comes against a backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures, with the annual inflation rate accelerating to 6.94% in October from 6.17% in August, largely due to higher fuel and energy prices.
The central bank projects that inflation will edge up slightly toward the end of 2026 before gradually easing, returning to the target range in the first quarter of 2028. Economic activity is forecast to recover moderately in the second half of 2026, although growth prospects are clouded by fiscal consolidation efforts, subdued private consumption and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The NBR also underscored significant uncertainties related to energy and oil price dynamics, exchange-rate movements and global financial conditions. The bank reiterated that safeguarding price stability remains its primary objective amid heightened economic uncertainty.
