I continue to see that many market participants interpret the current structure in EUR/USD as a correction, but I personally maintain that the broader context still favors the development of an upward trend. I recognize that the triangle formation on the chart visually hints at a potential downward resolution, yet I interpret it as a partial pullback rather than a full bearish reversal. I also observe the so-called “Three ******s” reversal pattern forming, and I understand that many traders may attempt to trade it to the downside, but I suspect that such positioning could fuel a contrary upward push, especially around the market open when liquidity conditions shift. I note that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1807 remains a critical resistance boundary, and I believe that if price consolidates beneath and then stabilizes around this zone, I could see momentum building for a renewed move upward, potentially targeting a break above the 1.2000 psychological figure. I consider the recent negative U.S. GDP data as an additional macro factor weighing on the dollar, and while political rhetoric may fluctuate, I focus primarily on how price reacts to these developments rather than the headlines themselves. I remain cautious because the weekly close left the market in a state of intrigue, and I prefer to see how the Asian session handles the localized liquidity pocket above 1.1800 before committing to stronger directional bias.
I also analyze USD/CHF with similar caution, as I observe that the pair has been developing an upward correction with a clear technical objective at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.7870. I track how price declined internally from 50% to 23.6%, then extended toward 14.6% and even 9%, and I interpret the subsequent rejection from those lower retracement levels as evidence of buyer interest. I see that the rise toward 38.2% created a temporary equilibrium zone, and I now consider whether the market will pull back from there or decisively break higher toward the 61.8% target. I admit that in such uncertainty I prefer patience, because I believe clarity emerges only after key levels are either respected or violated. I reflect on my recent EUR/USD trades, where I intended to buy at 1.1740 but was not triggered, and I acknowledge that my short from 1.1773 initially faced pressure before the pair tested 1.1806. I recognize that closing the upper short upon the return to 1.1773 was a prudent decision, and I understand that holding the lower position into a flat weekly close at 1.1779 leaves me exposed to ambiguity around the moving average near 1.1768. I emphasize risk management in my approach, as I deliberately moved stops to breakeven earlier in the week and reduced position size when reopening longs at 1.1760. I also partially closed a third of my position as a hedge, and I remain prepared to exit near breakeven if price action signals renewed downside pressure, because I prioritize capital preservation over forcing conviction in an uncertain environment.
