FX.co ★ GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is currently navigating a complex, multi-phase technical structure that, while not following a traditional trend line, leans toward a bearish bias as we move into the final week of February 2026. This localized downward phase, which began in late January following a peak near 1.3866, has been characterized by sharp, erratic pullbacks that have disrupted broader selling momentum. As of early Monday, February 23, the "Cable" is trading near **1.3480**, straddling the objective yearly open of 1.3474. For many market participants, the distinction between entering a short position at 1.3500 versus 1.3600 is significant, as precise entries are currently the primary defense against the pair’s high intraday volatility. The technical focus remains on the descending resistance levels at **1.3433** and **1.3380**. If downward momentum accelerates, the pair is expected to test the **1.3350** zone, which represents a critical confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the November rally and the 200-day moving average. A key requirement for validating this deeper downtrend is a decisive break below the 23.6% resistance level near **1.3537**. Until then, the recent pause near the 50% support level is being interpreted more as a period of consolidation or "market indecision" rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. This technical structure is complicated by a shifting fundamental landscape. On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the administration’s broad "national security" tariffs, a move that initially pressured the U.S. dollar and allowed the Pound to find temporary relief. However, the relief may be short-lived, as President Trump immediately pivoted to alternative legal tools to implement a blanket 10% global tariff. This legal and trade uncertainty, combined with a disappointing U.S. Q4 GDP print of 1.4%, has created a "tug-of-war" between a weakening dollar and a Pound Sterling that is under pressure from rising Bank of England (BoE) rate-cut bets following a surprise jump in UK unemployment to 5.2%. In the short term, the strategy remains reactive rather than predictive. If the pair manages to stabilize above **1.3470**, it may suggest that sellers are losing control, potentially triggering a tactical move toward **1.3570**. However, the hourly moving averages remain fragmented, with the most recent candles failing to hold above the midline, suggesting that the path of least resistance still tilts lower. Should the price fall directly from current levels, the market will first test the **1.3400** handle before targeting the late-January base at **1.3340**. Given that six-month forecasts are largely speculative in this high-tariff era, the focus for the coming weeks will remain on these confirmed structural shifts. While a long-term decline toward **1.3000** remains a tail risk in the event of a full-scale trade war, a controlled pullback to **1.3350** appears the most technically logical outcome in the immediate term.