Return of yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds over 3% supports strengthening of USD: USD/JPY is already at 109.90, and EUR/USD has fallen to 1.1915. The strong USD and the lack of a clear positive receipt of data from China results in drops in the stock market. Hang Seng is losing 1.1%, Shanghai Composite falls 0.2% and Japanese Nikkei lost 0.1%. The increase in US debt yields is traditionally reflected in gold. The price of an ounce of gold fell to USD 1311. It's calm so far on the oil market, where WTI oscillates around $71.
On Tuesday 15th of May, the event calendar is busy in important data releases, so the global investors should keep an eye on Consumer Price Index data from France, Producer & Import Prices from Switzerland, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings data from the UK, Gross Domestic Product and ZEW Economic Sentiment data from the Eurozone and Retail Sales data from the US. There are two speeches from FOMC members scheduled as well: speech from Robert Kaplan and John Williams will occur later in the day.
AUD/USD analysis for 15/05/2018:
The RBA Meeting Minutes did not provide much of a new information. The document repeated conclusions and views on economic prospects, which were previously disclosed in the Monetary Policy Report like: "members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up rather than down". The Board is sticking with its above-trend growth outlook which they believe will be sufficient to reduce spare capacity in the economy and restore the move to a lower unemployment rate, so RBA continues to be quite calm about the Australian Dollar noting that "it had remained in a narrow range over the previous two years relative to the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms".
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the rally to the 38% Fibo at the level of 0.7564, the AUD/USD fell to 0.7510, but this is more the consequences of USD appreciation. The next local support is seen at the level of 0.7495. The market momentum remains neutral, but it is a little skewed towards the downside as the stochastic oscillator is falling down. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7472, and if it is broken, then the local swing low at the level of 0.7410 will be tested.
