Brent crude oil was trading at $45, 46 per barrel in March. It was the highest level. Then, the global oil market faced a collapse due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
September's futures of Brent crude rose by 1.68% to trade at $45.07 per barrel. At the same time, September's futures of WTI grew by 0.93% to $42.09 per barrel.
Finally, oil prices have moved out of the $40-45 per barrel range. The rise was triggered by the recovery in fuel demand, as many countries left the quarantine. Also, in the United States, oil reserves fell by 8.6 million barrels in a week to 520 million barrels, although analysts had expected reduction by only 3 million barrels.
Oil quotes were also supported by hopes for the approval of a new aid package to maintain the US economy and the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East after the explosion in Beirut.
Moreover, an advance in the number of coronavirus cases in the United States has slowed down. Curiously, now the oil market may face a slight shortage, as analysts say.
What will happen next? API's experts believe that due to the recovery in demand, there are no risks of increased supply of raw materials in August. This means that oil prices may continue to rise, but they are unlikely to be significantly higher than the $45 per barrel level.
Nevertheless, some experts are not so optimistic, as the risks of falling oil prices still exist. Saudi Arabia may offer discounts on its elite Arab Light crude, cutting the price by $0.48 per barrel. In this case, the price of Brent may again fall below $45 per barrel.
Despite the fact that the number of people infected with COVID-19 in the United States has decreased, in the world, on the contrary, the coronavirus outbreak has been fixed. Some countries are reintroducing and even tightening restrictive measures. Moreover, there is still no effective vaccine against the coronavirus. The second wave is becoming a real threat, said Mark Bradford, an expert at BCS Global Markets.
In addition, a new agreement signed by the OPEC + countries came into force on August 1 to increase oil production by 2 million barrels per day. Repeated lockdowns will easily nullify oil demand. Economists noted that the market's positive sentiment is being held back by the sharp weakening of the US dollar. Oil prices are likely to ride a roller coaster in the near future.
