In spite of the key benefit of the European currency over the US dollar throughout the trading week, Friday\'s deals were in favor of the "American." It was due to long - positions fixation on the Euro. By the Asian trading session opening we observed a gradual bears\' pressure on the pair, which led to the decline from the level of 1.4791 to the base of the 47th figure. The European deals passed with greater positive mood. Relying on the solid fundamental data, released at that time, the pair could rebound larger part of losses and rose to the level of 1.4764, giving another chance for bears for better EUR/USD purchases, which in fact we had seen. The American trading session also went under the US dollar\'s pressure upon the Euro, allowing the pair to update the sessional minimum of 1.4675. Totally, the pair dropped by 61 points.
German Consumer price index entirely coincided with experts\' forecasts and remained to be flat at the level of -0.40%, but the Trade balance, unfortunately, slightly decreased after the previous growth and turned out to be at the level of 10.60B against the last figures of 12.50B. France and Italy surprised us by satisfactory industrial production data. The growth from 0.30% to 1.8% in France, compared to the previous month, inured the European currency, allowing it to recover slightly in the middle of the trades. The industrial production in Italy also was marked by an explosion by 7.0% versus 2.5% a month earlier.
The US trade balance, determining the value difference between imported and exported goods, a little bit cut down its negative positions from -31.90B to -30.70B, giving the opportunity to the single currency to strengthen a little during the American trading session.
To all described above I want to add that Friday was entirely passed under the bears\' power and only positive macroeconomic statistics helped the Euro not to lose won for a week positions.
The technical picture. The pair is still in a rather wide sideway channel of 1.4672 – 1.4818, but the general trend, formed from the beginning of October, remains to be ascendant. Currently, the pair is testing the 38.2% Fibo correctional level (the beginning is from October,02, the level of 1.4505), at the breaking through of which the next support level will be 1.4672. Also the 200 day exponential moving average, which is going near the level of 1.4688, is on the way of the pair\'s decline.
MACD indicator is located in the sales area, but as we can see, there are no significant volumes yet.
Considering the fact that today many of exchange markets will be inactive, so strong movement will not occur. A lot of transactions will be speculative.
Today I recommend to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above 1.4746 with the target – T/P 1.4815 and S/L 1.4718.
Sell the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing below 1.4675 with the target – T/P 1.4619 and S/L 1.4709.
Best regards,
Analyst: M.A.Magdalinin.
