On Friday, the following strong calendar news comes out:
- 08.55 London time. EUR, change in the number of unemployed in Germany (Sept), wait for -5K, the previous value is -5K;
- 09.30 London time. GBP, GDP (y / y) (2 sq.), Waiting for 1.7%, previous value of 1.7%;
- 09.30 London time. GBP, GDP (q / q) (2 sq.), Waiting for 0.3%, previous value of 0.3%;
- 10.00 London time. EUR, consumer price index (CPI) (y / y) (Sept), waiting for 1.6%, previous value of 1.5%;
- 15.15 London time. EUR, speech by the head of the ECB Draghi;
- 15.45 London time. GBP, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Karni.
Pair EUR / USD
Trend Analysis (Figure 1)
On Thursday, the market moved upwards (having fought off the bottom of the Bollinger lines and plus the last three candles in a row of black color). On Friday, the market may continue to downtrend. The complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.
Fig. 1 (daily chart). Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
Indicator MACD (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
The fast line (signal) is the white line.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
The overall result: The MACD indicator on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle line of the EMA - the color is white (first shadow).
5 middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle line of the EMA - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle line of the EMA - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run, the 8 middle line of the EMA (blue) moved down and below the 13 middle line of the EMA (yellow) is the signal of the bottom work.
The 21 middle line of the EMA is moving down and above the 13 middle line of the EMA, amplifying the lower work signals.
The bottom line: The EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
The average EMA lines are 24% down;
The MACD indicator (linear part) is 38% down;
The MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis: The price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down (red dotted line);
- Volumes - down;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion.
On Friday, most likely, the pair EUR / USD will have a downward movement up to 1.1680.
Pair GBP / USD
Trend Analysis (Figure 1)
On Thursday, the market for technical analysis was moving up. On Friday the probability of lower traffic is high. The complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) moved upward, and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.
The stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart gives a downward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of indicators RSI (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
Closed candle at the last day.
The calculation of the indicator RSI (5) on the properties gives down.
The calculation of the indicator RSI (8) by properties gives down.
The bottom line: The RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The calculation of the CCI indicator by properties gives the upper hand.
The bottom line: The CCI indicator system gives an upward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: The price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- Volumes - down;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion.
On Friday, the pair GBP / USD may move down to 1.3318.
