Looking at the forecasts on the preliminary data of the business activity index, the dollar has good chances to continue its growth today. Although there is a possibility for the actual data to differ.
Yesterday, there is no news came out, making the macroeconomic calendar empty. The situation on the market was calm and no strong movements were observed. It can be said that the dollar stabilized at the levels reached on Friday.
Today, the resumption of the growth of the dollar is expected, especially in relation to the single European currency. The fact that the preliminary data on business activity indices in Europe may show a decline. It is expected that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will decrease from 58.1 to 57.8, and in the services sector from 55.8 to 55.6. In turn, a similar data from the US should show growth. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector should increase from 55.3 to 55.6, and the production index from 53.1 to 53.5.
Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the data for Europe will be better than the forecasts, as the indexes of business activity in France have already been published. They were not just better than forecasts, but they showed good growth. If the outlook of Germany is the same, then the all-European indices will grow. Yet, the United States has issues, in particular with respect to the production index, as the industry shows not the best dynamics. Hence, it is expected growth in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector is rather strange.
In any case, if the existing forecasts have been justified, then the EUR/USD pair will decrease to the level of 1.1700. Otherwise, it is worth waiting for an update towards 1.1800.
The GBP/USD pair will depend on US statistics, and in case the forecasts happened, it is expected to decrease towards the level of 1.3125. If the US data is worse than forecast, the pound will grow to 1.3250.
