Today, the main event of the day will be the publication of data from the ADP employment reports and the result of the Fed meeting on monetary policy.
It is expected that either one of the events will have a positive impact on the rate of the US dollar. But, it will be probably on local data only, since Fed meeting is not anticipating for a rates decision, as it was scheduled on December meeting based on the promises of FRS members and Janet Yellen. The recent conference was only about the comments on the American economic status and the prospects for monetary policy. In spite of this, it will play a role that can provide markets optimism regarding the economic stability and its prospects, which will further provide limited support for the dollar.
The publication of data on the number of new jobs from ADP is considered slightly important, which the US economy received in October. According to the forecasts, it is planned to increase jobs in the private sector by 200,000 against 135,000 a month earlier. A strong increase in the job figures is because of the normal increase in business activity, particularly in regions that were previously affected by the three subsequent hurricanes that hit the United States in September. If the data came in above expectations, this could be a good support for the dollar appreciation.
However, despite the positive news for the dollar, its growth is likely to be limited, since the significant events for today, clearly show the lower figures in the US non-agricultural sector and unemployment figures. Another significant announcement this Friday is the announcement of President Donald Trump for the new head of the Fed Reserve.
Generally, it seems that the positive news from the US dollar will receive only limited support.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR / USD pair is trading below the level of 1.1660. Positive news from the US can push the pair for a further decline to 1.1580. This is all going to happen for today and will be limited, but if the pair falls below this level, we should expect the continuation of its fall to 1.1550.The EUR / GBP pair also has the potential for a local decline to 0.8700 if it falls below 0.8745-50. In general, we can say that the pair has a good potential to decline on the wave of increasing the key interest rate by the Bank of England following the meeting on monetary policy.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
