EUR / USD, GBP / USD
There was no final vote in the Senate on tax reform on Tuesday, as the debate continued and the procedure was postponed. While speculators could not resist buying again the euros and the single European currency gained 57 points at the end of the day. Relative to other currencies, either the dollar will strengthen or will stay on Monday levels. Euro buyers did not even pay attention to economic data which is the sentiment index in business circles of Germany Ifo for December, as it fell from 117.6 to 117.2. While bookings of new homes in the US for November increased from 1.26 million to 1.30 million (the best figure for 9 months), it also consists of the number of issued building permits The new houses amounted to 1.30 million against the forecast of 1.27 million but acquired 1.32 million in October. The US balance of payments for the third quarter came out significantly better than the forecast, showing -101 billion dollars against -116 billion. In the second quarter, the negative balance was at -124 billion dollars.
This night, the American bill in the final version was adopted by the House of Representatives and sent to the Senate. Perhaps, it is expected to be passed by the Senate today. The deadline for voting is Friday. The adoption of the bill will start the pre-New Year rally, although, in fact, it started on the stock market on December 7.
The eurozone's balance of payments for October was published today, with an expected decrease from 37.8 billion euros to 33.4 billion. In Britain, the balance of retail sales from CBI for December is projected to decrease from 26 to 21. In the US, home sales in the secondary real estate market for November are projected to grow from 5.48 million to 5.53 million.
Formally, the counter-dollar currencies did not interfere with the falling today but, speculators probably will keep the dollar from rising until the adoption of the tax reform by the Senate. From these positions, the euro is allowed to rise to 1.1900 and the British pound to rise to 1.3480-1.3520. There will be elections to the Parliament of Catalonia tomorrow. According to preliminary estimates, the victory is acquired by supporters of independence. The main scenario with a decrease in the euro and pound is maintained and expected to have a prevailing influence for a long period of time.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar is quietly waiting for the fifth day to adopt the US tax reform in the range of 0.7640-0.7700. Yesterday, the RBA published the minutes of the last meeting on the monetary policy, they went unnoticed by the main focus of the investors. The increased influx of migrants into the country. The situation in the commodity market is neutral. Oil added 0.5% with the transition to a new futures contract, iron ore on different exchanges closed in different directions, copper added 0.5%. The stock indices of the APR are currently traded mixed, showing the S & P / ASX 200 + 0.13%, Shanghai Composite -0.04%, Indonesian IDX Composite -1.03%. In general, markets continue to wait for the adoption by the US Congress of tax reform.
The AUD / USD pair is expected at 0.7550.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
