Looking at the 1-hour chart, we noticed that in the early New York session EUR/USD is trading above the trend channel and above the 21 SMA, maintaining bullish momentum as both signs are bullish. However, at approximately 1.2160 a channel of bearish pressure is located, thus providing resistance. If the pair manages to consolidate above this level, we can expect an upward momentum to 8/8 of murray at 1.2207.
On the other hand, if the price cannot manage to consolidate above 1.2160, it is likely to press down on this channel. Pressure is going to be very strong until a possible bounce to the 200-day EMA in the 1-hour chart which is located at 1.2120. If this level and the bullish channel are both broken, we could start selling with targets at 6/8 and 5/8 Murray.
At the fundamental level, the United States continues to deliberate on a new fiscal aid package before the end of the year. For the next few months, more stimulus packages are expected when President-elect Joe Biden enters the White House in January. This could weaken the US dollar and the euro would benefit from this, taking the currency pair to the 1.23-1.25 level.
If we concentrate on the technical aspect, we note that EUR/USD is showing a sign of exhaustion. Therefore, a daily close above 1.2160 could give a new boost to the euro and reach 1.22 and 1.2270 (overbought zone). On the other hand, if it cannot remain above that level, it is most likely that we will wait for a correction for the next few days to the 1.2025 zone of strong daily support.
Our recommendation is to sell below 1.2120. On the other hand, the eagle indicator this morning is touching the top of the bearish channel, if we see a break in that channel, it will be considered to be a signal to buy euros again in the medium term. However, for now is also under downward pressure.
Trading tip for EUR/USD for December 14 – 15
Buy if the pair breaks above 1.2160, with take profit at 1.2207 (8/8 murray) and 1.2269, stop loss below 1.2120.
Sell if the pair breaks below 1.2120, with take profit at 1.2085 (6/8 murray) and 1.2023, stop loss above 1.2155.
