AUD / USD
On Thursday morning, the Australian dollar has not changed in price. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, the "Australian" currency resisted because of the price increase for raw materials. Also this morning, the rate of the "Australian" dollar is kept unchanged in the range of 0.7760 / 75 but the price of raw materials was already decreasing, except for aluminum, this shows an increase of 3.3%. Moreover, copper loses 1.9% and iron ore by -0.5%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the report on financial stability in the morning. The RBA noted the strength of the national banks in comparison with foreign banks in terms of the availability and increase of defensive reserves. The overall financial system is rated as "favorable."
However, investors did not pay attention to the weakening data on the Chinese trade balance. The March estimate showed a negative balance of -5.0 billion dollars against the expected decline from $ 33.7 billion to 27.1 billion only. Exports fell from 44.5% YoY to -2.7% YoY. The closest case is when the Chinese Trade Balance was in the negative zone in February last year and the second time is in February 2014. On Tuesday, next week, investors may expect deterioration in Chinese industrial production and GDP. And on Monday, the United States expects retail sales to grow by 0.3% in March.
We are expecting the Australian dollar will drop below the current range of 0.7760 / 75, with possible further downturn below the overall pressure of the US dollar.* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
