EUR / USD
Yesterday, the single European currency resulted in downfall by 39 points. The beginning of the visual currency turnover was set by the failure in the industrial production of the euro area, showing a decline in February by 0.8% after -0.6% in January (revised from -1.0%). This was the largest monthly decline for the year. Later, the ECB's minutes from the last meeting on March 8 was already published, which further confirmed the regulator's intention to leave the stimulus programs very slowly. The reason for this slowdown is the trade wars and Britain's withdrawal from the EU.
The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the past week decreased from 242 thousand to 233 thousand against the expectation of 231 thousand. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said that the decision on the missile strike in Syria has not yet been taken and the White House intelligence continues to investigate. Markets took this signal as a softening of the external rhetoric, nevertheless, they began to buy dollars, as the American carrier group headed towards the Mediterranean Sea.
Fairly important news for the dollar strengthening is the US desire to restore negotiations on the establishment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP). The White House sent the authorized diplomats to the meetings. It seems that President Trump froze this process earlier last year, followed by the revision of NAFTA treaty and the implementation of protectionist policies outside the WTO rules, this served as a preparation for the provision of more favorable conditions for the US projects in the TTP and TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) projects.
Vice President of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis said that further plan for eurozone integration this year may not be completed.
Today, the eurozone trade balance for February will be published with a forecast of 20.2 billion euros against 19.9 billion in January. The indicator is expecting for a worse forecast, as Germany's trade balance on Monday was significantly worse than the forecast of 19.2 billion vs 23.1 billion euros. According to the preliminary estimates of US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for April, the forecast is 100.6 compared to 101.4 in March. Also, FOMC Fed members Eric Rosengren, James Bullard and Robert. Kaplan will have their speeches today. The topic of the speeches has not been announced, but perhaps some of them will touch the monetary policy which officially shifted more towards strengthening (which may even affect the traditional "dovish" Bullard).
We are expecting the euro at 1.2250.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
