According to the calculations of Eric Nelson, currency strategist of the largest bank Wells Fargo, we should expect a rise in the price of the euro against the US dollar in the near future. The expert considers it possible to increase to 1.18-1.20 in the EUR/USD pair. E. Nelson estimates the probability of such an outcome at 65%
The expert notes that the risks of medium and long-term forecasts for the euro are shifting towards a higher rate of the single currency against the background of the expected turn in the eurozone economy. According to the forecast of Wells Fargo expert, the growth of the EUR/USD rate in the medium term to 1.18 does not exclude a rise to 1.20. According to E. Nelson, the probability of 35% of the euro will depreciate compared to current levels. The decrease may be 2%-3%, the analyst believes. Pressure on the single European currency could be brought about by a significant weakening of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy, including a possible new round of quantitative easing.
At the moment, the situation in the EUR/USD pair is relatively stable. After the breakdown of the support at the level of 1.1350, the EUR/USD pair fell back to the technical support level of 1.1325. According to the expert, the target for sellers is 1.1280. The "bearish" scenario can be implemented in the case of a more powerful strengthening of the US currency, the expert believes.
