The results of the meeting of the European Central Bank and the subsequent press conference of Mario Draghi did not exactly disappoint. Watching the funny jumps from side to side was extremely interesting. Particularly pleased with the result of all this fun, as they stopped exactly where they started. Events developed strictly according to a given scenario. Shortly before the announcement of the outcome of the meeting, the single European currency was confidently going down, as if preparing to leap up. The reason, of course, was the diligently spreading rumors that the office of Mario Draghi wanted to see the queues of indignant German investors with pitchforks and torches and reduce the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. That is, they tried to convince us that, according to the European Central Bank, respectable burghers do not pay the banks enough for keeping their savings, and they would be worth more to support German credit institutions suffering from extremely low profits. Meanwhile, other Europeans have no savings, only loans. But as soon as it became known that there were no suicides in the leadership of the European Central Bank, the single European currency predictably flew into the stratosphere. Yet, as they soared to such exorbitant heights, investors suddenly realized that in general, nothing had changed, and quickly returned the single European currency from heaven to Earth. Nevertheless, do not be discouraged, because in September, we are waiting for a repetition of yesterday's performance, since all the prophets now predict that the European Central Bank will lower the rate on deposits at the very beginning of autumn.
For the pound, it seems to continue to be in a state of shock due to the fact that the former journalist with a diploma of archeologist has become the new prime minister of Great Britain. And the rhetoric of Boris Johnson with each new day is more and more different from what he said earlier. Speaking yesterday in the House of Commons, the new head of the Conservative Party said that, of course, it is better to leave the European Union with the deal, but if Europe is not ready to make concessions, the United Kingdom will leave it and so. At the same time, Boris Johnson announced the start of new negotiations with Europe on the issue of a divorce agreement. From this news, Jean-Claude Juncker can only ask the Lord why no one hears him, as the head of the European Commission last half or more tirelessly repeats that there will be no more changes to the existing version of the agreement. So if, prior to the election of Boris Johnson, it was clear that on October 31, the UK will leave the European Union under the toughest scenario. Thus, now, several different perspectives emerge which is exactly not clear to anyone. In other words, there is only more uncertainty.
Against this background, the pound ignored the results of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank and, from the outside, watched merry throwings of the single European currency. Although this allowed it to appreciate American statistics, which showed an increase in the number of orders for durable goods by as much as 2.0% instead of the expected 0.7%. After which, it confidently went down.
Today, investors may finally have a reason for the long-awaited correction for the dollar. We are talking about preliminary data on the GDP of the United States for the second quarter, although the forecasts have been revised for the better, it should still show a slowdown in economic growth from 3.1% to 1.8%. Immediately, the oracles of all stripes will begin to shout that this is a foreshadowing of a future recession. The onset of which is predicted next year. In any case, such a sharp slowdown in economic growth will have a negative impact on the dollar.
Before the publication of data on the GDP of the United States for the second quarter, the single European currency will wait. After which, it will start to grow in the direction of 1.1175.
The pound scenario is similar, and by the end of the day, it is worth waiting for its growth to 1.2500.
