4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 19p - 64p - 29p - 86p - 39p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 47p (55p).
Monday, July 29, was quiet and peaceful for the EUR/USD pair. There were no important macroeconomic events related to the euro or the dollar that day, traders decided not to force events before the Fed meeting, at which the regulator is likely to announce a rate cut. Moreover, there was another collapse in the "neighboring" GBP/USD pair, and there is much more news and events. More or less significant reports on income and expenditures of the US population will be released tomorrow in the United States, and the day after tomorrow - inflation and GDP in the European Union and the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. Thus, the volatility of the euro/dollar pair today fell to its lowest level. As for the prospects of the euro currency, they still remain vague, based on the current set of fundamental factors. Of course, hypothetically Donald Trump can give a surprise tomorrow, he likes to do this and is able to give a surprise to the Fed, lowering the rate by 0.5%, China-US trade conflict may worsen and the euro will start to be in demand. But at the moment, there is no reason to buy the euro even in the medium term. Mario Draghi is not unreasonable, but he does everything so that the euro currency continues its fall. Yes, he has reasons for this, since inflation is low, economic growth is slowing. Moreover, the "cheap" euro makes it more profitable to trade with the United States, as Trump has repeatedly said, just accusing the European Union and China of deliberately lowering the rates of national monetary units. On the other hand, each country conducts its monetary policy, as it sees fit and the United States is no exception.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has moved to a sideways correction, but it can be completed tomorrow. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the MACD indicator to turn down and re-sell the euro currency with a target level of 1.1080.
We recommend buying the euro/dollar pair not earlier than when traders have overcome the Kijun-sen line with targets at 1.1175 and 1.1201, but with minimal lots, since the bulls remain extremely weak.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
