GBP/USD
The British pound continued its inertial fall yesterday after a collapse on Monday, a decline of 67 points. Today, the US Federal Reserve will, with a market probability of 100%, lower the rate from 2.50% to 2.25%, which creates a risk of a price rebound back to the price channel line to 1.2270, that is, the price can make a classic retest of the price channel line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart is slightly bent up, which creates prerequisites for such a movement.
On the four-hour chart, the possible movement to 1.2270 coincides with a correction level of 38.2% of the entire previous four-day decline. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator went up sharply, the boundary with the growth area - the zero level - is close, it is possible for the indicator to turn down, and this is a sign of a rapid price increase, so fast that the indicator does not have time to adjust to this movement. With moderate growth, the signal line will reach the boundary with a touch of the Fibonacci price level of 23.6% (1.2220).
However, the likelihood of the pound continuing its downward movement persists even with a rate cut, since there are many psychological and economic arguments for a continued decline; from the market's full readiness to lowering the rate by a quarter of a point, and Fed Chairman Powell might declare expediency during the pause of the mitigation cycle, in order to take a closer look at the effect, to the hard Brexit and the easing of monetary policy by the Bank of England. The goal is the same - 1.2055.
