EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.1106), being inside the upward trend channel. The rebound of quotations from this Fibo level will work in favor of the US dollar and some fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. There are no grounds for selling the euro/dollar pair yet.
An extremely small amount of economic information came from Europe this week. Some uninteresting reports, the inflation report for September yesterday and, perhaps, everything. The consumer price index in the eurozone slowed to 0.8%, which cannot but strain the European Central Bank, which in the coming months will again have to turn on the printing press and flood the economy with cash. ECB President Mario Draghi has already touched upon the topic of reanimation of the world economy and the EU economy. According to Draghi, who will retire at the end of the month, the EU countries (and not only) need to spend more, as well as stimulate spending among the population in every possible way. This can lead to economic growth and inflation. But to contain the increased (hypothetically) inflation will be the central bank by raising the key rate. This theory has even received the name "Modern Monetary." In many ways, it resembles the concept of "helicopter money", when in a figurative sense, money in any quantities is dumped onto a suffering economy, again to stimulate spending. These issues are very relevant now for the eurozone.
Meanwhile, there was a debate with 12 representatives of the Democratic Party in America. According to political analysts, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders are leading the race for the presidency. They all called Trump the most corrupt president in US history. According to Democrats, Donald Trump made that ill-fated call to the President of Ukraine Zelensky with only one purpose, "to dig up dirt on his opponent (Joe Biden)." Joe Biden himself said during the debate:
"I would like to draw attention to why we need to dismiss Trump. George Washington said that above all, the American people should worry about foreign interference in our elections. This was the biggest threat to America. President Trump has appealed to foreign governments (Russia, Ukraine, and China) three times to change the course of our elections. It's outrageous!"
Thus, Trump may not even leave his post earlier than November 2020 to impeach Congress, but his chances of winning the upcoming presidential election are significantly reduced.
What to expect from the euro/dollar currency pair today?
On October 17, traders will continue to pay more attention to the EU summit and all issues and messages related to Brexit. The EUR/USD pair will again be in the shadows. However, this does not mean that it will not continue to grow in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% (1.1106). The rebound from this level I will regard as a pair reversal in favor of the US dollar.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.0927 if the close below the level of 1.1024 (127.2% Fibonacci) is executed. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.1029.
I recommend holding the pair already open purchases with a target of 1.1106.
