The pound took positive news that the UK and the EU agreed on a draft deal on Brexit. Although no one doubted this, the pound managed to gain more than 150 points against the US dollar, which it subsequently lost amid profit-taking by large players.
Today, the head of the European Commission, Junker, confirmed that the Brexit deal has been agreed. The draft Brexit deal was agreed three years after the referendum. In his opinion, the deal is fair and balanced and takes into account the interests of all parties. In this regard, there is no need to extend the negotiations. Junker also noted that he was ready to begin developing a future trade agreement on November 1.
However, it is not so simple as it might seem at first glance. There are still a lot of problems with the agreement, and, in fact, only half the work has been done so far. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said today that there is now a wonderful new agreement that is returning control, and Parliament should approve Brexit this Saturday. Despite striking statements, Johnson will face a tough battle over Parliament's approval of the deal, as after the news of the EU's agreement, the Democratic Union Party of Northern Ireland said it was still opposed to the draft Brexit deal.
Arlene Foster noted that the deal could not be supported in its current form. "Under the current situation, we cannot support the option of the deal that is proposed regarding customs issues, as well as the lack of clarity on VAT," Foster said.
Also, many MPs repeatedly drew attention to the fact that they did not familiarize themselves with the legal aspects of the deal itself, which could also affect the final opinion.
As for the fundamental data, a report on retail sales in the UK was released today, which was generally ignored by traders. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales remained unchanged in September compared with August. The decline in sales in online stores negatively affected the overall indicator. Economists had expected retail sales to fall in the UK in September compared with August. Sales for the 3rd quarter of this year increased by 0.6%.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, after an unsuccessful growth attempt at the European session, highs at 1.2920 and 1.3000 act as resistance. The downward correction will be contained in the area of large levels 1.2750 and 1.2660.
EURUSD
The euro rushed after the British pound today, and data on the US labor market put even more pressure on the dollar. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims for the week of October 6–12 grew by 4,000 and amounted to 214,000. Economists expected the number of applications to be 215,000. The moving average of applications for four weeks was 214,750. Number secondary applications for the period from September 29 to October 5 decreased by 10,000 and amounted to 1,680,000.
While all the market's attention is focused on Brexit, the President of the German Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, expressed concern about the tension in international trade relations, which could significantly slow down the growth of the global economy. Opponent of low interest rates also expressed concern about the stimulus measures of the European Central Bank.
