GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the correction level of 61.8% (1.2836), rebound from it and a reversal in favor of the English currency. Thus, the pound-dollar pair may continue to trade above the level of 1.2836 this week, which will preserve its chances of resuming growth in the direction of the peak level of 1.3011. Closing the pair at 61.8% will work again in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 50.0% (1.2668).
The information background for the pound-dollar pair last week was quite weak, so it will remain this week. No interesting report on the UK economy will be published, so traders will be able to pay attention only to news from America. Accordingly, the key days for the pair will be Tuesday (speech by Jerome Powell) and Wednesday (reports on durable goods orders, GDP, employment levels and personal income and spending of Americans). The most important topic for the "Briton" and the whole of the UK – Brexit – remains in pause mode, as the country continues to prepare for the elections and nothing interesting is happening at all. Only the comments of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, who urge the electorate to vote for the conservatives or labor, familiarization of the population with the manifestos of each party participating in the elections and debates, interviews aimed at increasing the popularization of a particular political force. Probably because nothing interesting is happening in the UK now, and traders ignore a good half of all economic reports (mostly from the US). Thus, the pound remains in a state where it is difficult to trade it for the long term. Most of the trades close very quickly, and the trend movement is not obvious at all.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The pound-dollar pair stopped falling near the correction level of 61.8%. Thus, purchases, from my point of view, are again expedient, if we take into account the fact that it is unlikely that the quotes will continue to grow above 1.2975. Rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% allows you to buy the pound. I recommend selling the pair this week, if there is a consolidation under the correction level of 61.8% with a target of 1.2668. We pay special attention to Jerome Powell's performance tomorrow night.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
