The only important news in the business media is still optimistic statements from China that the US and China are about to conclude the first trade deal. In my opinion, before we rejoice - we must wait for statements from old Trump - this is the negotiator. One gets the impression that the US is winning this tug-of-war game - of course, the US is also losing something from Trump's duties - but it seems that China is losing a lot more. Trump understands this too, and the desire to "squeeze" the opponent is great. We'll see.
There was talk that the Fed might cut rates again. Of course, this benefits Trump - any easing of monetary policy objectively pushes back the moment of future crisis - and Trump needs a year exactly to be elected. But on the other hand, the more financial bubbles are inflated, the more painful the fall will be.
Are there bubbles? Well, for example - the US stock market right now at historic highs. Growth from the lows of 2008-2009 was +300%. Well, I object to not correctly evaluate the assets price of panic selling in the winter of 2008-2009, Let's take an assessment of S&P500 index prices to the previous high of September-October 2007, - approximately 1540. From this level, the growth of the index is +100%. That is, a correction of, say, 30-40% could be quite real - and this is a huge drop in the market, huge stress on the economy.
Bubble-2, associated with the first - huge property prices in the most expensive US state - California. The fall of the Internet giants will inevitably cause a drop in prices - it is not so easy to sell houses for 2-3 million dollars. This will hurt some banks.
Bubble-3 is huge. China's debt market. In the event of a big decline in China, this is a huge risk.
That is, there is gunpowder for the explosion - but so far there is no strong tension - and the growth can continue.
EURUSD: We buy from 1.1100.
We sell from 1.0985.
