The EUR/USD pair is traded at 1.1557 and it seems very heavy in the short term after failing to confirm further growth. Technically, the pair was somehow expected to develop a temporary rebound before dropping deeper. The price signaled that the rebound is over and that sellers could take full control again.
The Dollar Index is still bullish, so EUR/USD could extend its downside movement if the index reaches new highs. The USD bulls ignored the US NFP indicator which reported worse than expected data on Friday. The Non-Farm Employment Change was reported at 194K in September versus 490K expected.
Fundamentally, USD is still bullish as the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Claims, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and the ISM Services PMI have reported better than expected figures.
EUR/USD upside invalidated
EUR/USD failed to retest the Descending Pitchfork's median line (ML) signaling strong selling pressure. Today, it has printed only false breakouts with great separation above 1.1580 weekly pivot point.
The most recent rebound could be considered as a continuation pattern, as a minor up channel. As you already know from my previous analysis, EUR/USD maintains a bearish bias as long as it stays under the median line (ML) and below the immediate downtrend line.
EUR/USD forecast
EUR/USD is bearish. A new lower low, a bearish closure under 1.1541 may activate a deeper drop at least towards 1.1590 weekly S1. Dropping below it may signal a further drop towards 1.15.
Technically, only a valid breakout above the downtrend line and above the median line (ML) could invalidate a downside continuation.
