GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to move in a very narrow upward corridor. However, it is clear that the growth of quotes is slowing down and the pair is preparing to close under the corridor, which will change the current "bullish" mood of traders to "bearish". As for the euro/dollar pair, there was no important news and reports regarding the pound or the dollar on Monday. All the news still comes down to the coronavirus topic. The total number of people infected with the virus worldwide is already almost 2 million people. However, in Italy, the number of victims of the virus is decreasing, and the number of people who are sick and hospitalized is also decreasing. Thus, we can assume that in the near future the UK will pass the "peak" of the epidemic, after which the situation will begin to improve at a slow pace. In Spain, there is also a decline in diseases, and the quarantine in this country is slightly weakened.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair continues the growth and made a consolidation above the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516). Thus, on April 14, the growth can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 76.4% (1.2777). There are no emerging divergences today. On the hourly chart, the "bullish" mood of traders also persists, but it is on this chart that the first signs of a possible reversal of the pair in favor of the US dollar begin to appear. The growth process is weakening. Closing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a slight drop in quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2303).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes increased to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2463) and anchored above it. As a result, the growth process can be continued towards the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2711). At the same time, I recommend now paying more attention to the hourly chart, which may change the mood in the near future.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
No important reports were released in the UK and US on Monday. Thus, the information background had no effect on the course of trading of the pound/dollar pair.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
On April 14, news from the UK and America is not expected again. The information background will be empty again.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
On Friday, another COT report was released, which showed an even greater reduction in the total number of contracts for major market players. Both groups of speculators and hedgers got rid of both long and short contracts. Thus, the attractiveness of the pound/dollar pair for large investors is getting lower and lower. Hedging companies were most likely to get rid of contracts against the pound, but speculators were also engaged in closing contracts. In general, this means that the pound continues to lose its attractiveness in the eyes of major market players. Moreover, this process has been going on for at least two weeks. The overall advantage remains on the long side, but it is absolutely minimal: 160,000-154,000.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I believe that today we should consider selling the British dollar with the goal of 1.2303 when fixing quotes on the hourly chart below the corridor, as well as under the level of 61.8% on the 4-hour chart. Purchases of the British dollar with the goal of 1.2777 are now more attractive, as it managed to close above the level of 61.8% on the 4-hour chart. At the same time, the exit from the ascending corridor will work in favor of the dollar and purchases will need to be closed.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency for the purpose of providing current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
