The US market has reached the highest indicators in this month. However, its growth is not justified - the peak of the epidemic in the US will soon pass but the economic crisis is just beginning. It is recommended to open sell positions on USD setting the Stop Order at the recent highs.
EURUSD: today the report on the US GDP for the first quarter is due. The figure is forecast to decrease to - 4.5% (!). Notably, in the first quarter, the epidemic hit the United States only in the last 10 days.
At 21:00 Moscow time, traders are anticipating the Fed's meeting. The regulator is highly likely to introduce a new stimulus package. However, investors will focus on the Fed's statement as it will reflect how the central bank assesses the situation.
EUR: Buy positions on 1.0850. Sell positions on 1.0725 and 1.0808.
Coronavirus:
Continental Europe has overcome the peak of the epidemic. In Spain, Italy, and France, the number of deaths per day is kept below +400.
There are three stages that indicate the recovery from the epidemic: 1) a decline in the number of new cases below +7% per day; 2) a drop in the actual number of cases; 3) a decrease in the number of deaths per day.
In the UK, the situation is worse - up to + 600 deaths per day.
The eurozone is going to lift quarantine restrictions starting from May 1,4 and 15. The quarantine restrictions will be completely removed from June 1, even in Italy.
US: In the US, the situation is more complicated: the death toll per day is holing at peak + 2500, but an increase in the cases is seen in the states, in New York only +520. That is only a fifth part of the deaths and in New York, there was a 1% increase in new cases.
In the US, it is too early to ease the quarantine measures.
In Russia, there are 93,000 cases; the epicenter of the disease is in Moscow, +6400 per day.
A more detailed review of the coronavirus situation in Russia will be published later.
President Vladimir Putin extended the quarantine until May 11. Many regions plan to lift restrictions from May 12. Nevertheless, it is too early as the peak of the epidemic will be around May 19-20. If to ease the quarantine now, Russia could be hit by a second wave of the coronavirus.
