GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair continues the growth within the upward trend corridor, which defines the current mood of traders as "bullish". However, this growth is very moderate, and the angle of the corridor is not too strong. Thus, the pair takes 5 steps forward and 4 steps back. There is no stable growth of quotes now. On older charts, there are several levels that are barriers to further growth of the pair. These levels cannot be called extremely strong, but, as follows from the COT report, the major players now also do not particularly favor the pound. Therefore, market activity is currently low, and major players can not start building a new strong trend. There is not much to highlight from the UK news. If news and reports are coming from the EU and the US, then in Britain there is a feeling that not only local residents are in quarantine, but also the entire government, all the media and news agencies.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516), a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a minimal fall. However, this fall stopped very quickly, so the pair will make new attempts to close above the Fibo level of 61.8%. If you are lucky, the chances of continuing the growth of quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2777) will increase. A new rebound from this level will again work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2303). There are no emerging divergences today.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes returned to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2463). The rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the US dollar and resume the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2215).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the top two trend lines, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Wednesday, there was again no report or economic news in the UK. And in America, there were plenty of them, and all of them had no effect on the mood of traders, which remained "moderately bullish".
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
USA - the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (14:30 GMT).
Today, April 29, the UK news calendar again does not contain any important information. And in America, there will be one report that can interest traders. However, it will eventually probably "pass by" the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pair.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed an overall increase in the number of long and short contracts. This means that interest in the British among major market players is beginning to grow slowly. However, overall trading volumes remain fairly low. During the reporting week, the total number of longs increased by 8,668 contracts, and shorts - by 5,885. The overall advantage also remains for longs and it is also minimal - 170,000 against 161,000. For a group of speculators, equality is almost complete - 31,000 short and long. However, I would like to note that since the report for March 31, when the number of long and short contracts in the hands of the "Non-commercial" group has almost leveled off, all trades in the British currency are mostly held between the level of 1.2303 and 1.2516, that is, in a side corridor.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend selling the pound today with a target of 1.2303 if the rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% on the 4-hour chart is completed. I recommend buying the pound after closing above the Fibo level of 1.2516 with a target of 1.2777. I draw the attention of traders to the relatively low market activity at this time.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
