To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
In the morning forecast, I paid attention to purchases after forming a false breakout at the level of 1.0787. If we look at the 5-minute and hour charts, we can see how the bulls managed to achieve a false breakout, but a larger upward correction from this level, at least to the minimum of 1.0831, could not be built. This suggests that there are no willing buyers yet, which may lead to a new sale of the euro in the afternoon. However, as long as the trade is conducted above the level of 1.0787, the buy signal will work out, and a sharp increase to the maximum of 1.0831 is not excluded. You can increase long positions only after fixing above the range of 1.0831, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the maximum area of 1.0882, where I recommend fixing the profits. I also recommend paying attention to the divergence that is formed on the MACD indicator, which will be an additional confirmation of the bullish correction. If the pressure on the euro persists in the second half of the day after the data on the US labor market, then after the breakout of the support of 1.0787, I recommend to postpone long positions to the test of the lows of 1.0755 and 1.0728 and buy EUR/USD from them immediately for a rebound in the calculation of correction of 25-30 points within the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Sellers are still in full control of the market and are now aiming to break the low of 1.0787, which was not possible in the first half of the day, even after the terrible reports on industrial production in Germany and Italy, which declined at a larger pace than expected. However, only a real break of the level of 1.0787 will lead to a new wave of selling EUR/USD with access to new areas of 1.0755 and 1.0728, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more pleasant gift for bears will be an upward correction to the resistance area of 1.0831, which may occur today after the release of reports on the state of the US labor market. Only the formation of a false breakout at this level will signal the opening of new short positions in the euro with the aim of returning and breaking 1.0787, as well as updating new weekly lows in the area of 1.0755 and 1.0728. If there is no activity from sellers in the area of 1.0831, and yesterday an attempt was made to continue the bearish trend from this level, it is best to abandon short positions until the test of a larger maximum of 1.0882, where you can sell for a rebound in the expectation of correction of 30-35 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is below the 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bear market.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A break in the lower border of the indicator around 1.0787 will lead to a new wave of falling euros.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
