EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On June 15, the euro/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency on the hourly chart and began the growth process, simultaneously completing a consolidation over the downward trend corridor. Thus, temporarily or permanently, the mood of traders again changed to "bullish". It is still very difficult to talk about the reasons for this growth of the pair. There were no important news or reports on Monday, primarily in America, since it was the US dollar that showed a drop in pairs with the euro and the pound on Monday. You can try to find the reasons in the US stock market or in some US states that have recorded an increase in coronavirus diseases recently. You can try to link the fall in the dollar to the tension in the country, which is associated with the upcoming elections or the racist scandal that led to rallies and protests across the country. However, all these reasons are ambiguous and it is impossible to accurately track which of them affected or at least could have affected the movement of the pair.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair also performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and began the growth process. There was also a close above the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1294), which increases the probability of growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496). No new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today. Closing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the US dollar and resume the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1167).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair rebounded from the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1405) and fell to the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1261). However, there was no closure below this level. Therefore, further growth towards the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1147) is still in doubt.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the euro/dollar pair performed a rebound from the lower line of the "narrowing triangle", which still allows traders to expect growth in the direction of the 1.1600 level (the upper line of the "triangle"). Given the growth of the euro currency in recent weeks, this goal may be "taken" soon.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 15, the EU and the US did not have any important reports or events. There was no information background, which did not prevent traders from resuming purchases of the euro currency.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in retail trade volume (12:30 GMT).
US - change in industrial production (13:15 GMT).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (14:00 GMT).
On June 16, the EU news calendar is empty again. But there will be several important events in the US, as well as Powell's speech to the US Congress.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed very interesting changes in the mood of major traders. For example, the "Non-commercial" group has increased the number of long contracts by 12,500, while not forgetting to get rid of short contracts. Since it is believed that this group is driving the currency market, nothing is surprising in the growth of the European currency, according to this report. Hedgers very logically recruited opposite contracts, since this is the essence of their activity (+20766 short contracts). Thus, over the past two weeks, the euro currency has lost 8 thousand short contracts and gained 12,500 long contracts. The most interesting thing is whether this mood will continue among traders, which will allow the euro currency to continue the growth process? Recent days show that bull traders are fed up with buying the euro currency.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with the goal of 1.1167, if a new close is made under the level of 1.1294 on the 4-hour chart. Purchases of the pair could be opened at the close above the level of 1.1294, but for now, I have doubts about the continued growth of euro quotes. However, the target is 1.1496.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
