The price of crude oil this morning went up amid good statistics from the United States of America. However, in general, due to the not very stable situation in the black gold market that has developed this week, the average oil price may be in the negative zone. An increase in raw material reserves in America should be considered the reason for the reduction. In addition, the rapid spread of coronavirus infection in the United States also puts serious pressure on the price of oil.
This morning, the price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in August on a trading floor in London rose significantly after an even more dramatic drop in the previous days. The rise was 1.49% or 0.61 dollars, which sent the brand to the level of 41.66 dollars per barrel. Recall that yesterday's trading also ended on a positive note: an increase of 1.8% or 0.74 dollars.
The price of futures contracts for WTI light crude oil with delivery in August on the electronic exchange in New York today also moved upward to 1.45% or 0.56 dollars. Thus, its morning level was in the region of 39.28 dollars per barrel. Yesterday, at the close of trading, there was also an increase to 1.9% or 0.71 dollars.
The main growth factors in the oil market are statistics on increasing orders for durable goods, which are recorded in the United States of America. According to recent statistics received from the Ministry of State Trade, the total volume of such orders in the last month of spring was 15.8% more compared to the previous period. Analysts' forecasts in this regard turned out to be much more modest than real numbers. According to their preliminary data, the increase should have been no more than 10.9%. Of course, such an excellent result could not but please investors who were inclined towards an accelerated pace of economic recovery.
Even more positive was added after the release of data on the unemployment rate in the United States. As it became known, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits last week fell by 60 thousand. Thus, according to the report of the Ministry of Labor of the country, 1.48 million people wrote applications. Meanwhile, a more significant result was expected. Experts assumed that the decline would reach 1.3 million people. Nevertheless, the fact that this indicator is steadily declining is already perceived positively in the oil market.
However, negativity is also enough. Market participants are extremely concerned about the epidemiological situation in the world and in the United States in particular. A sharp increase in the number of new infections in some US states may lead to the re-introduction of restrictive quarantine measures, which will negatively affect the pace of economic recovery. Nevertheless, the authorities assure that if the restrictions are returned, then only partially and in individual cases. So, there are plans to close the so-called "distribution points", individual places and stores, and this must be done very quickly so as not to spread COVID-19 to a wider territory. Investors do not yet believe too much in this rhetoric, which speaks of minor quarantine measures since statistics on the number of cases dictate quite the opposite.
The positive aspects of the oil market include a possible increase in demand, which is expected in the near future. At least investors saw some signals for this.
Thus, satellite data reflect a rather serious recovery on the roads of China, the United States of America, and Europe, which indicates an increase in fuel demand and provokes an increase in demand for crude oil. Road congestion in Shanghai has already exceeded the same indicators of the previous year, and in other major cities of the world, this level has returned to the pre-crisis mark. This suggests that demand is rapidly recovering, which inspires hope in the hearts of investors who already have enough negative.
In general, the week for the oil market was not easy. The rapid growth was followed by an equally significant drop, which is unlikely to be played out on the last working day of the current week. However, it is already positive that the negative pressure is broken and a positive correction has begun.
