The S&P 500 index is now testing support at 4,447 as expected and we see the possibility of a final rally closer to resistance at 5,000 - 5,100 in the month ahead. Short-term we will need a break above minor resistance at 4,603 to confirm the expected rally towards 5,000.
However, once a new all-time high is made over the former peak at 4,820 it's time to be very cautious as a larger corrective decline should be expected. That said, we also have to stress, that a break below support at 4,272 will indicate that we already have seen the peak of wave 5 and the larger corrective decline already is in motion. So now is not the time to be overly bullish on the S&P 500.
