After the strong rise of the last few days, the Japanese yen has formed a diamond pattern below the strong resistance of 8/8 Murray.
We should wait for a confirmation of a break below 115.40 and below 115.23, zone of 7/8 Murray, for a downward acceleration towards the 200 EMA located at 114.52.
On the other hand, to confirm a new bullish momentum and to be able to continue buying, we will need to confirm highs above 8/8 Murray located at 115.62, in which case we can think of the next target at +1/8 Murray at 116.01 and up to the high of 116.16.
The eagle indicator is approaching the overbought zone. The last 4-hour candlestick forming the diamond pattern is a sign that the Japanese yen's strength is running out. A correction is likely in the next few days towards 114.52.
Importantly, the US Fed indicated last Wednesday that it could raise interest rates at a faster pace than expected to contain soaring consumer inflation.
The government bond yield spread between the United States and Japan rose to its highest level since late February 2020, causing the yen to weaken towards the level of 116.00.
In the medium term, it is expected that the yen could extend its weakness and could reach the psychological level of 120.00 against the US dollar.
Of course, it is normal that there are certain corrections as the yen approaches this target. Therefore, a good opportunity to buy USD/JPY is to wait for a bounce off the 200 EMA around 114.52.
Our trading plan for the next hours to sell if USD/JPY consolidates below 114.40 and below 115.23 (1/8) with targets towards the bottom of the bullish channel and towards the 200 EMA around 114.52.
Support and Resistance Levels for January 31 - February 1, 2022
Resistance (3) 116.10
Resistance (2) 115.89
Resistance (1) 115.53
----------------------------
Support (1) 114.99
Support (2) 114.78
Support (3) 114.42
***********************************************************
Scenario
Timeframe H4
Recommendation: sell below
Entry Point 115.40
Take Profit 114.84 (6/8); 114.42 (200 EMA)
Stop Loss 115.76
Murray Levels 115.62 (8/8) 115.23 (7/8) 114.84 (6/8)
***************************************************************************
