To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
In the first half of the day, I paid attention to sales if a false breakout was formed at the level of 1.1695, which happened. On the 5-minute chart, the bears managed to achieve a false breakout and even tried to continue the pair's downward movement on the rather crumpled PMI data for the Eurozone countries, however, nothing came of it. As a result, sellers left the market, losing the level of 1.1695 to buyers. At the moment, trading is conducted above this range, however, you need to check and test this area for strength from top to bottom to enter long positions. If the level holds, you can open long positions in the expectation of continuing the upward correction to the resistance area of 1.1737, where I recommend taking the profit. If there is no rapid downward movement there, then you can buy EUR/USD after fixing above this area to update the maximum of 1.1779. If EUR/USD falls below the level of 1.1695 in the second half of the day, and good indicators on the US PMI can return demand for the US dollar, it is best to consider purchases after updating the new weekly minimum in the area of 1.1648, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:
Sellers are still confused and are thinking about how to regain the level of 1.1695. The decline and test of this area from the bottom up in the second half of the day forms a good signal to open short positions in EUR/USD with the main goal of continuing the bear market and updating the minimum of 1.1648, where I recommend fixing the profits. A further weekly target will be 1.1585. If the demand for the euro continues in the second half of the day, it is best not to rush with sales, but to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1737, where the 50-daily moving average also passes. If there is no activity on the part of the bears at this level, you can sell EUR/USD immediately to rebound from the local maximum of 1.1779 with the aim of a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day. It is unlikely that data on PMI indices will significantly affect the market, however, it is worth looking at the reports.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates continued pressure on the euro and the formation of a bear market.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
Only a break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1675 will lead to a larger decline in the euro. A break of the upper limit in the area of 1.1720 may strengthen the upward correction for the pair.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
