According to the COT report, open interest in the euro declined, amounting to 655912 (-10500). At the same time, there is a decline in the net position of all analyzed groups of major players. The chosen tactics of behavior of huge players led to a similar result. During the last reporting period, they preferred to get rid of contracts, regardless of direction (Non-Commercial - long -5082 - short -2376; Commercial - long -4786 - short -8563). The behavior in Dealer Intermediary was slightly different (long +1438 - short -5323), but such numbers do not change the essence. This group continues to have an impressive investment gap; Dealers have 15 times more short positions than long ones. This means that the clients of Dealer Intermediary continue to insist on the euro's growth.
The main conclusion
The forecasts and preconditions for the development of an upward correction are likely to remain. After taking a break during the decline, the bears stayed in the correction longer than necessary, thereby complicating the implementation of their plans.
Technical picture
The technical picture retains the previously marked pivot points. On the other hand, closing September on the lower limit of the monthly cloud 1.1688 delayed the development of the situation. It is important for bearish traders to break through the support at 1.1688 and restore the daily downward trend (low 1.1612), which can lead to a fairly wide and significant support zone – the lower limit of the daily cloud (1.1567) and the Fibo Kijun of the week (1.1521) and months (1.1486). If bullish traders manage to stay in the monthly cloud (1.1688), then the next task will be to restore the weekly short-term support (1.1812), liquidate the daily dead cross (1.1859) and enter the bullish zone relative to the daily cloud.
In the smaller time frames, the key supports (central pivot level 1.1720 and weekly long-term trend 1.1715) continue to protect the bulls' interests and their advantage. The intraday upward goals are located today at 1.1745 (R1) - 1.1773 (R2) - 1.1798 (R3). Meanwhile, a breakdown below 1.1720-15 will affect the current balance of power. Now, with the bears' further strengthening, the support levels of 1.1692 - 1.1667 - 1.1639 may come into play, but the main task in this direction is to restore the downward trend (1.1612).
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classical), Moving Average (120)
