EUR/USD – 1H.
On November 30, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling, during which it consolidated under the upward trend line. Thus, the mood of traders should have changed to "bearish". A little later, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth, however, the upward trend is still broken. I now expect a resumption of the fall in prices. Meanwhile, the euro/dollar pair is now in a kind of information vacuum. In America, everyone seems to be preparing for Christmas, New Year, and the inauguration of Joe Biden, and it is unlikely that anything interesting will happen in America before January 20. All attention is focused on the figure of Donald Trump, who is trying in the last weeks of his stay in the White House to make his own life as easy as possible after January 20. According to many American media and experts, after Trump ceases to be President (and loses presidential immunity), he and his company will face a lot of lawsuits and proceedings. According to the New York Times, over the past 4 years, Trump and his companies have been involved in criminal and civil cases thirty times. There have also been repeated questions about Trump's business regarding taxes and tax evasion. According to official reports, Trump's companies show losses from year to year, so the current President practically does not pay taxes. In general, Trump can start a fun life after he hands over the reins of government to Joe Biden.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes have consolidated above the upper border of the side corridor and generally continue the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). A rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall, and a close above it will work in favor of further growth towards the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). However, so far, traders have not managed to close above the level of 1.2000.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2079). However, more attention should now be paid to the lower charts.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On November 30, America and the European Union did not have a single economic report. Thus, the information background was extremely weak, which did not prevent traders from actively selling the euro this time.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (09:00 GMT).
EU - consumer price index (10:00 GMT).
US - ISM manufacturing index (15:00 GMT).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT).
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (17:00 GMT).
On December 1, Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde will perform, which is already very interesting. Also, I recommend paying attention to the indices of business activity in the EU and US manufacturing sectors.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The new COT report was released again late, and again there were few changes in it. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, which is the most important, opened 3,061 new long contracts during the reporting week and closed 1,932 short contracts. Thus, quite unexpectedly, the mood of the major players became more "bullish" after it had become more "bearish" for several months. Perhaps this is an isolated moment and the next report will show a new desire of speculators to get rid of the European currency. However, this is the case now. The total number of long contracts held by speculators is still extremely high, however, the euro currency has grown quite significantly over the past 9 months.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1920 and 1.1879 if there is a rebound from the level of 127.2% (1.1967) on the hourly chart (or just in case of a reversal in favor of the dollar below the level of 1.1967). Purchases of the pair can be opened after closing quotes above the level of 161.8% (1.2027) with a target near the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2094).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
