The EUR/USD pair found resistance at the 150% Fibonacci line of the ascending pitchfork and now is traded back below 1.0757 ket resistance. In the short term, the price action signaled that the buyers are exhausted but it's premature to talk about a potential sell-off.
Fundamentally, the German Unemployment Change is expected at -16K, the Euro-zone CPI Flash Estimate may report a 7.8% growth, while the Core CPI Flash Estimate could register a 3.6% growth. In the short term, the bias remains bullish. The USD needs strong US economic data during the week to be able to take full control again.
Better-than-expected US data today could lift the greenback. The CB Consumer Confidence is expected at 103.9 points versus 107.3 in the previous reporting period.
EUR/USD Bearish Divergence!
The EUR/USD pair retreated but the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the uptrend line. As you can see, the RSI and the price action signaled a bearish divergence, but this is not enough for me to consider going short.
Technically, the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) stands as a dynamic support. Only dropping and stabilizing below the uptrend line and below this downside obstacle could signal that the swing higher is over.
EUR/USD Forecast!
Staying above the uptrend line and making a new higher high, a bullish closure above 1.0786 could activate an upside continuation and could bring new long opportunities.
On the other hand, staying below 1.0757 and making a new lower low, dropping, and closing below 1.0697 could activate a strong drop. This scenario could bring new selling opportunities.
