GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair on Monday attempted to continue the process of falling. However, it again failed to close for a long time under the side corridor. Thus, the integrity of the corridor has already been violated several times. However, most of the trades continue to take place inside it. There was no rebound from the lower border of the corridor, and the quotes are very close to this border at this time. However, they are unlikely to be able to rebound. Closing under the corridor will not give traders anything, as there have already been two or three such fixes. The only hope is for the information background. Today in the US, as I have already said, a fairly important report on retail trade will be released. However, this report is not the only one that will be of interest to traders today. In the UK today, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech. In fairness, it should be noted that Bailey performs quite often. However, his speech is not always about monetary policy or the economy. Traders are only interested in these topics, so they ignore others. Therefore, it is not clear what the governor will talk about today. Consequently, it is difficult to know whether there will be any reactions from traders to his performance. Everyone is waiting for Bailey to clarify his position on the issue of early curtailment of the stimulus program, as well as on the issue of a possible interest rate increase in 2022 (or even earlier). Also, today, reports on unemployment, applications for unemployment benefits, and average wages will be released in the UK. I think the first two reports are quite important. For the British to finally leave the side corridor, data from Britain must be weak, and from America - strong. Otherwise, a new process of growth of the pair may begin in the direction of the upper border of the lateral trend corridor.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair is inside the side corridor. Meanwhile, on the 4-hour chart, it continues to be inside the ascending corridor and has performed a fall to its lower border. Thus, the closing of quotes under this border will work in favor of a further fall in the pair's rate in the direction of the level of 1.4003. At the moment, the quotes are near the lower border of two corridors at once.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, everything still depends on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes continues. Closing the pair's rate under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process can be resumed at any time in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812)
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Monday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, also gave a speech in the UK. However, he does not always talk about the topics that interest traders. The information background was missing yesterday.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (06:00 UTC).
UK - unemployment rate (06:00 UTC).
UK - change in the level of average earnings (06:00 UTC).
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (12:15 UTC).
US - retail trade volume change (12:30 UTC).
US - change in industrial production (13:15 UTC).
On Tuesday, the US and UK calendars are quite plentiful. There will be important statistics in both countries. The information background promises to be strong today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of June 8 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has not changed. In total, speculators closed 7,000 long and short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, only the total number of contracts concentrated in the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders decreased. At the same time, we also got rid of both types of contracts in the "Commercial" and "Non-Commercial" categories. All market players got rid of the contracts for the Briton. It indicates a new drop in interest among traders in the pound. However, the mood of speculators on it remains confident "bullish", as the number of long contracts exceeds the number of short contracts twice.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar are not recommended today, as the pair cannot form a rebound from either of the borders of the two corridors. It is recommended to sell the pound if the 4-hour chart is closed under the ascending corridor with the targets of 1.4064 and 1.4008.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
