EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency during Monday and began a weak growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2166) after closing above the level of 1.2117. You may get the impression on the hourly chart that the pair is trading very actively. However, the real state of things is visible on the 4-hour chart, where the quotes are located inside a very narrow downward trend corridor. Thus, at this time, I expect the quotes to grow from the lower border of this corridor to the upper one. Let's see what can contribute to this today. There was no background information on Monday. There was no single important event. On Tuesday, there won't be much more important news and reports. By and large, traders are obliged to pay attention to the report on retail trade in the United States, as well as to the report on industrial production in the same place. Although I believe that if traders react to the American statistics, it will only be a reaction to the first report. And only if its value surprises traders. There will be nothing more interesting today. But at a time when inflation is accelerating in many countries of the world, as a result of the actions of the authorities and central banks of these countries during the pandemic. The European Central Bank has recently made several statements on this issue, and each of them says that the emergency bond purchase program (PEPP) will be completed as planned, that is, not earlier than March 2022. At the same time, in the event of a deterioration in the situation with inflation or economic growth, it can be extended for a longer period. Thus, the EU is now definitely not talking about curtailing the stimulus. Let's see what the Fed tells us this week.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the European currency near the lower border of the downtrend corridor after the formation of a bullish divergence at the MACD indicator. Thus, the growth process began in the direction of the upper boundary of the side corridor. Closing the pair's exchange rate above this corridor will increase the chances of further growth of the European currency.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair closed above the level of 161.8% (1.2027). But at the moment, all the charts signal different movements and directions. There is no unity in the graphic picture.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 14, the calendars of economic events in America and the European Union were empty. There was no information background on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - retail trade volume change (12:30 UTC).
US - change in industrial production (13:15 UTC).
On June 15, the calendar of economic events in the European Union is again empty. However, several reports will be released in the US, which may affect traders. The information background on Tuesday will be weak.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which showed a weakening of the "bullish" mood among speculators. During the week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed 5,525 long contracts and a total of 401 short contracts. Thus, the systematic disposal of long contracts began. But their total number in the hands of speculators remains almost twice as large as the number of short contracts. And in general, the changes are not so big now that we can talk about a complete change of mood from "bullish" to "bearish". I believe that speculators are still focused on buying the European currency.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair in the case of a rebound of quotes from the upper limit of the corridor on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2117. I recommend buying the pair if the quotes close above the corridor on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2275 and 1.2353.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
