WTI prices pulled back sharply last week and returned to the 101.53 area. This fall was due to fears about a recession amid rising inflation and in line with the sharp decline in the main Wall Street indices. Despite growing recession concerns, as long as WTI trades above $100.00, it suggests that traders still expect to see high demand and limited supply during the month of July.
Investors fear that the slowdown in economic activity will lead to lower global demand for crude oil. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop to $90.00 in the next few weeks.
Last week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report was postponed until next week. OPEC+ members will meet this week. Investors expect major oil producers to stick with their plan to increase output to 648,000 barrels per day in August.
On June 27 and 29, crude inventories will be published. Both events could give us a clue and this could determine the weekly WTI trend which is likely to continue falling in the coming days.
After having reached the low of 101.56 on June 22nd, crude has been bouncing and today it is above the 21 SMA located at 106.12. Given that crude oil has strong resistance at the 200 EMA located at around 109.20, it is likely that it will be an opportunity to sell if the price approaches this area.
Since June 22nd, crude is oscillating inside an uptrend channel and is likely to continue trading this way in the next few hours and could reach the top of 109.50 or bounce around 105.50.
The short-term trend remains bearish as crude trades below the 21 SMA on daily charts located at 113.20. Therefore, any attempt to approach this resistance zone in the next few days will be an opportunity to sell. So, WTI could resume the downtrend and reach the psychological level of $100.00.
A daily close above 113.50 could revive the main trend and we could expect crude to hit the zone 4/8 Murray at 125.00.
On the other hand, a sharp break of the bullish channel and a daily close below 105.00 could trigger the secondary downtrend and WTI price could reach the area of 103.50 and even 0/8 Murray at 100.00.
