EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair showed absolutely nothing last Friday. All day there was an absolutely flat movement between the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. At the same time, the lines themselves cannot be called a reliable source of trading signals at this time. Recall that the Ichimoku indicator lines lose their strength with a sideways movement, so many signals are false. This is exactly what happened on Friday. We warned traders last week that the pair is in swing mode, which is no better than a classic flat. Therefore, one should trade as carefully as possible or not trade at all. There were practically no macroeconomic statistics on Friday. We can only single out the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, which, even with poor forecast values, managed to turn out to be even weaker. However, this report had no impact on the US currency. The euro continues to recover after another collapse, but at the same time it is absolutely not visible that it was trying to continue corrective growth.
There were several trading signals on Friday. The pair bounced off the Kijun-sen line several times and once off the Senkou Span B line. From our point of view, we could try to work out the very first signal, but it already showed that there would be no strong movement during the day. We deliberately did not mark the signals in the chart, as the pair was flat all day. Thus, if traders opened a long position on the first signal, it closed at breakeven on Stop Loss.
COT report:
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro caused a huge number of questions. Recall that in the past few months, they showed a blatant bullish mood of professional players, but the euro fell all the time. At this time, the situation is beginning to change, and again, not in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, but the euro was falling, now the mood has become bearish... So what can we expect from the euro in this case? The question is rhetorical. During the reporting week, the number of long positions decreased by 11,400, and the number of shorts positions in the non-commercial group decreased by 1,800. Thus, the net position fell again, this time by almost 10,000 contracts. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that now even major players do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is now lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 16,000. Therefore, we can state that now not only the demand for the US dollar remains high, but also the demand for the euro is gradually declining. This may lead to a new, even greater fall of the euro. In principle, over the past few months or even more, the euro has not been able to show even a strong correction, not to mention something more. Its highest upward movement was about 400 points. All fundamental, geopolitical factors remain in favor of the US dollar.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 27. Geopolitics and the foundation for the euro are not improving.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 27. The British pound is mired in problems, and the market simply refuses to buy it.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on June 27. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
EUR/USD 1H
The pair finally went into a flat movement on the hourly timeframe. Thus, it is best now to wait for the completion of the flat. The Ichimoku indicator lines no longer form strong signals, and the pair itself can spend several weeks in this trading mode completely freely. Today, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.0340-1.0359, 1.0400, 1.0485, 1.0579, 1.0637, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0564) and Kijun-sen (1 .0537). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No major events are scheduled in Europe, and only a report on orders for durable goods will be released in the US. Not the most important report, so we don't wait for the market reaction to it. Most likely, the flat will continue today.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
