Bitcoin continues to confidently occupy the $62k-$64k range, and on Wednesday it may test its absolute maximum for the first time since April. At the same time, the first signs of weakness are noticeable on the technical charts of the coin, which may signal a further aggravation of this trend. However, a natural question arises: what could have contributed to the emergence of bearish signals with a positive news background and the greed of investors? Ironically, Bitcoin's problems lie in its successes.
Simply put, the first cryptocurrency was covered by a wave of additional pressure caused by the actions of long-term investors. It all started on October 17, when BTC began to approach the $60k mark, which meant that all coins in circulation were fully recouped. It is logical to assume that when crossing the line of primary payback, part of the audience will want to make a profit by fixing it in bitcoin. Again, it would be logical to assume that long-term investors who have held coins for at least 150 days will be the first to delve into this process. This suggests that most of these traders purchased BTC during its fluctuations in the $30k-$45k range and are already within the highest payback on the market right now.
The on-chain analysis also confirms the fact that coins stored in users' wallets for more than 150 days have started to move actively. This confirms the thesis that part of the audience sells their assets, speculatively making a profit. As of October 19, the pressure on the BTC price is felt only on narrow timeframes, which indicates small volumes of coins sold. However, the first preconditions for the emergence of corrective structures and bearish sentiments suggest that the trend may strengthen and move to wider time ranges.
As bitcoin moves above the $65k mark, the pressure on the price will increase as more investors want to sell the coins for a medium to short term profit. In the worst case scenario, this is fraught with a decline to local lows due to an aggravated correction or a local sell-off provoked by negative news. In the best case, the market will simply pause and move to the accumulation stage, after which the growth of quotes will resume.
Despite the possible appearance of an additional pressure on the price, bitcoin continues to move confidently towards a historical record. The coin has consolidated above $62.5k, which may become an important support zone in the near future. At the same time, the cryptocurrency completed the previous day with the formation of a bullish engulfing candlestick and is moving above the supertrend line, which indicates the strength of buyers on the eve of the $64.3k storm.
Technical indicators continue to remain bullish and indicate the continued upward trend. MACD completes the implementation of the bullish crossover, while the stochastic has just completed its formation and is also starting to grow. The relative strength index has again broken through the line at 70 and is moving upward into the overbought zone.
Bitcoin is inexorably moving towards a historical record and local asset sales are leveled by the powerful positions of institutions. In addition, the first US ETF for bitcoin futures launched trading Tuesday, and there are 7 more applications in the queue. Also, the famous Grayscale Trust fund has filed an application for reorganization into an exchange-traded fund on bitcoin futures, which will add excitement and permanent investment in newly created institutions. Therefore, at the moment, the main question is how far BTC will be able to advance and where a new historical record will be set.
