Early in the American session, gold is trading at around 1,702.55. It is bouncing back after reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel formed in early September. The price is likely to continue its bounce in the next few hours and could reach the 21 SMA located at 1,715.
The US CPI data beat expectations. This made the US dollar stronger and, as a consequence, bond yields rose. This data exerted downward pressure on gold which caused it to fall below the strong resistance of 1,729, a level that we had mentioned in our previous reports.
We are seeing a correction in the dollar index and a pause in the rise in Treasury bond yields, which could benefit gold in the coming hours.
In case gold breaks below the uptrend channel, a bearish acceleration is likely to follow towards the area 2/8 Murray located at 1,687.
On the other hand, strong resistance is observed at around 1,715 (21 SMA). A daily close above this level could accelerate the bullish move and we could expect gold to continue rising until it reaches the top of the uptrend channel around 1,735 and the price could even reach the 200 EMA located at 1,738.
A confirmation below the psychological level of 1,700 could be the key to a further decline in gold and the price could reach 1,687 and could even hit -1/8 Murray at 1,656.
In the alternative scenario, the price above 3/8 Murray at 1,718 could be a favorable sign for gold and it could reach 4/8 Murray at 1,750 in the short term.
Our trading plan is to buy at current levels above 1,702.55 with targets at 1,715 and 1,718. A daily close above 1,720 will be a signal to continue buying with targets at 1,730 and 1,738 (200 EMA).
