Bitcoin is walking a razor's edge as it risks reversing the recent bullish momentum. This situation is due to the failed retest of $50k, which acts as a psychological level and a difficult resistance zone. The failure of the cryptocurrency showed weakness on the part of buyers when they were just starting to gain an advantage. As of December 23, the asset is in a wide $45k-$48k fluctuation range. And there is every reason to believe that BTC will once again plunge into an area of uncertainty.
However, PlanB's expert believes that a drop to the $45k-$48k area is not the worst part. According to the analyst's estimates, bitcoin has a good chance of falling 80% from its all-time high of $69k. The author predicts such a powerful decline for the cryptocurrency when it reaches all-time highs around $100k-$200k. This is clearly a bear market, during which bitcoin collapsed by 80%-85%. However, the author is confident that the fall will not take place any time soon, as the asset is far from reaching new records.
Despite the start of the BTC accumulation period and a strong bullish signal, the possibility of a bullish cycle end remains. This is indirectly indicated by weakness in buyers approaching a difficult resistance zone. In this scenario, the five-wave growth pattern should be completed. Since there is no clear rule on distinguishing five waves, we can assume that bitcoin have completed a bullish cycle and soon, after a period of consolidation, it will continue downward movement. In that case, the minimum target for correction would be $30k and the final target would be around $15k-$20k. This scenario is unlikely, but I assume that a price reduction will still occur.
As of December 23, Bitcoin is trading around the support area at $48.3k. The asset failed to consolidate above the key resistance area of $49.7k, as a result, the price rebounded and declined towards the support area. This situation indicates that the bulls are trying to come back to their senses, but the market lacks large volumes to break such strong tops. Sellers' positions around $50k-$50.7k are quite strong and by force of limit orders, the price has been pushed back below $49k. Investors are waiting for big players to confidently storm this zone, as no one wants to open long positions in BTC without a consolidation above $50k.
In addition to the inactivity of the whales, the favorable situation in the stock markets adds to the nervousness of the situation. Bitcoin's main protege, the S&P 500 Index, has shown a positive trend and remains near an all-time price high. Overall, markets closed on a positive side thanks to upbeat economic news. However, the buyers did not manage to gain sufficient advantage to break $50k. Given these facts, we can assume that if the price fails to consolidate above $49.7k, the asset will retest $45k.
Given the current situation, bitcoin has only two options. In the first, the price manages to consolidate above $49.7k, due to an impulse breakdown of $50k. This scenario is not feasible without large purchases by major investors. In addition, there is a mirror level at $50.8k, a bounce from which could trigger a corrective move. Therefore, I would consider an exit from the wide range only if the price moves above $52k.
The second option suggests a corrective move to $42.8k, where the 365 EMA passes. This is the most likely scenario, as after the downtrend there is no structure on the bitcoin charts indicating a possible rise. Therefore, I believe that due to lack of buying strength, the price will head to the $42.8k-$45k range, from where it will resume moving to the highs. It is worth noting that we are within the nascent bullish growth wave and hence with a drop below the $46k line, the probability of price rebound will increase. The possibility of the whales pushing the price above $51k cannot, therefore, be ruled out.