2021 has become a year of rethinking the possibilities of the main cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has significantly boosted institutional investment and helped large companies retain capital during a 30-year high inflation. Cryptocurrency has become the most profitable financial instrument in 2021, ahead of oil and real estate. And of course, the main crypto-asset became the third after Visa and Mastercard in terms of the volume of processed transactions.
All these factors suggest that JPMorgan's position that Bitcoin is only good as a hedge against inflation is somewhat underestimated. The main cryptocurrency continued its path of becoming a global means of payment thanks to the emergence of bitcoin wallets like Chivo in El Salvador, as well as the Lighting Network payment system. The only thing that hinders the introduction of a crypto asset everywhere is high volatility.
It is for this reason that JPMorgan has reduced the "fair value" of the asset to $38k. But at the same time, Bitcoin has increased its dependence on the S&P 500 trading index, which cannot be attributed solely to the current market period. In addition, it is important to remember that it is volatility that allows Bitcoin to compete with gold for investor attention. And even despite the excessive impulsiveness of the BTC price behavior, the coin ended 2021 with a gain of +60%, while gold fell by 2% over the same period.
Fidelity analysts do not believe that volatility will be a problem for BTC in the future and will not allow it to reach the value of $1 million per coin. In addition, the report of the company's experts states that due to the security and decentralization of the network, the main cryptocurrency will continue to be in demand.
The massive move of mining from China in the summer of 2021 strengthened Bitcoin's position as the "king of decentralization." Over the past year and a half, the mining industry has become more fragmented due to the equal distribution of shares among several regions.
Taking into account all the facts, we can conclude that during bearish or corrective cycles, it is necessary to accumulate the main cryptocurrency. Large investors understand this, while the retail audience is selling assets at a loss. This is evidenced by the Realized Loss on-chain metric.
Is Bitcoin going up or down?
Despite the fact that the coin is trading near the downward trend, there is a possibility of a second decline to the $35k-$30k area. Everything points to a repetition of the spring-summer period of 2021, where three local bottoms were formed during the correction cycle. Current volumes and active accumulation suggest that it is enough for the cryptocurrency to form a double bottom and subsequently exit the $30k-$40k range.
This is also indicated by the formation of a local "ascending triangle" technical analysis figure. The potential of this formation is $40k-$40.5k, which suggests that the cryptocurrency will continue its upward movement after a short period of accumulation in the $36k-$38.7k area.
Subsequently, I assume a storming of the $ 40.5k level, where the 0.786 Fibo level passes, and the activation of sellers. The result will be a fall to the $30k-$35k area, collecting liquidity, averaging positions, and further recovery to $36k-$38k in order to re-storm $40.5k. In summary, I want to say that it makes no sense to go long before the price goes beyond $40k. Therefore, the current range of price movement should be used for averaging positions in order to make a profit in the medium term.
