FX.co ★ Leading crypto analysts expect BTC to plunge below $30K

The bull run in the cryptocurrency market emerged in early February. It seemed that a fully-fledged uptrend might soon begin. A bullish reversal pattern started to form on the charts of bitcoin and other major digital assets. However, when it was time to break the line of shoulders and prepare for a bullish rally, the US Fed announced it would soon hake rates. Geopolitical risks made things worse, and investors turned to gold.

Eventually, bitcoin fell to the swing low of $37.1K, the point where the short-term uptrend emerged. Although the coin consolidated there, leading crypto analysts started to forecast the bearish market for the flagship cryptocurrency. Huobi co-founder Du Jun was the first to highlight his pessimistic outlook. He expects a bullish trend on bitcoin as earlier as 2025 and links the uptrend to the fourth BTC halving.

Glassnode asserts fundamentals, including monetary policy tightening, and geopolitical risks precipitate a steady bearish market. The number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance continues to grow. The longer the trend remains bearish, the more likely are the losses on BTC, analysts said.

Crypto expert Lark Davis reckons negative sentiment has a direct influence on the cryptocurrency market. Investors are spooked by the possibility of war, continuing inflation, and monetary policy tightening, so they are now turning to gold and other safe-haven assets. Byzantine General assumes when Tether dominance reaches 4.5% to 5%, it will mark a bottom on BTC, which also indicates extreme fear sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, welcomes the bear market and says it will get rid of weak projects and hype. He links the current fall to the deep correlation between the cryptocurrency market and traditional stock indices.

Under such circumstances, the downtrend in the cryptocurrency market is likely to extend to the range between $35K and $32K. The level of $36.2K will stand as the only support zone if the price breaks through $37.1K. If a bearish breakout occurs, the quote will plunge in the range of $35K-$32K where the fall will stop at around $34K. A lot will depend on the geopolitical situation in the world and the Fed's policy. Nevertheless, the bear run might not stop at $32K.

There are several factors that could indicate the emerging bullish market. Firstly, this is the historic factor. It is linked to a plunge to $28.7K last year. Bitcoin hit the swing low there and the uptrend resumed. Therefore, a bearish market with the possibility of an 85% nosedive from the all-time high is unlikely to occur before a breakout of this mark. Secondly, it is the reaction of major BTC holders, including MicroStrategy. Such investors are market makers, so they have enough resources to protect their positions. MicroStrategy may incur heavy losses if BTC breaks below $30K. The company will definitely try to avoid such an outcome.

From all the above, a strong bullish impulse triggered by large BTC holders is expected in the range of $30K-$32K. However, if the market does not react to this move and the price consolidates below $30K, it will mark the start of the bearish market. However, the current state of the cryptocurrency market is highly likely caused by geopolitical risks and bitcoin's adjustment to the upcoming monetary policy tightening. At the time of upheaval, investors usually turn to safe haven to protect their capital, and cryptocurrencies are no such assets yet.