Crypto Industry News:
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that when it comes to BTC falling, the worst is behind us. The former CEO believes that the three main cohorts of bitcoin sellers - lending companies, miners and speculators - have already capitulated, marking the bottom of the cryptocurrency market cycle.
As Hayes explained in a blog post, centralized lenders (CELs) start going bankrupt when they lend money to people who can't pay it back. In addition, depositors often expect their assets to be returned in a short time, but institutions have lent them for a long period. In order to meet the capital calls, the CELs then begin to liquidate the collateral of short-term loans they have made to other players in the industry. This collateral is usually denominated in Bitcoin or Ether, which means both assets are starting to experience a lot of selling pressure.
The latter causes a sharp decline in the price of bitcoin in the run-up to the wave of bankruptcies. Both Three Arrows Capital and Alameda Research ran into problems in this cycle and therefore huge amounts of BTC and ETH were traded on centralized and decentralized exchanges.
"All that's left are illiquid shitcoins, private stakes in cryptocurrency companies, and locked pre-sale tokens," Hayes wrote.
"I'm glad these entities have little or no extra bitcoin to sell," he added.
Technical Market Outlook:
The Bitcoin bulls are back above the trend line support (orange line) and are approaching the other short-term trend line resistance. (blue line). The nearest technical resistance is seen at $17,428 and the next local technical support is seen at $16,700. There is no indication of the down trend on Bitcoin to terminate or reverse yet, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of $13,563 (2019 high).
Recently BTC/USD spiked up over 12% already as bulls were seen moving towards the next technical resistance located at $17,600. The 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave down is seen at $17,664, so this level might be tested as well (in a form of a spike up etc.).
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $17,347
WR2 - $17,136
WR1 - $17,014
Weekly Pivot - $16,995
WS1 - $16,803
WS2 - $16,718
WS3 - $16,502
Trading Outlook:
The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $15,555 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout in the long term.
