Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
A signal to sell emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.0903. Coincidentally, the MACD line was starting to move below zero, so the pair fell by about 30 pips. The rise to 1.0933 in the afternoon also prompted a signal to sell, thereby provoking another 50-pip decrease in euro. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.
Despite the release of reports on retail sales in the Euro area and industrial production in Germany, demand for euro did not increase because the ECB's March report regarding monetary policy lacked hawkish opinion on the need for a more active fight against inflation. At the same time, statements by Fed members James Bullard, Charles Evans and Raphael Bostic returned pressure on EUR/USD, leading to a dip to new weekly lows.
There are no important statistics on the euro area and the US today, so after updating the next local lows, pressure on EUR/USD is likely to ease. Retail trade data from Italy, as well as the speech of ECB board member Fabio Panetta, can only lead to a small burst of volatility in the market.
The report on US wholesale trade in the afternoon will also not be of serious importance, so this data can be safely ignored. Nevertheless, the bull market in dollar will continue because the current geopolitical situation still limits risk appetite.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0880 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0930 (thicker green line on the chart). However, a further increase is unlikely today, except if traders manage to break above 1.0880. In any case, when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0854, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0880 and 1.0930.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0854 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0811. Pressure will continue if traders manage to break through the weekly lows. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0880, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0854 and 1.0811.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
