According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued the process of falling on Thursday and Friday and secured under the corrective level of 200.0% (1.3071). As a result, the process of falling continues now in the direction of the level of 1.2980. Or the 1.3000 level, near which bear traders retreated last time. The quotes of the British dollar very quickly resumed the process of falling after the last corrective to the level of 1.3279 and found no grounds for further purchases. I can't say that the British or the British economy looks frankly weak right now. UK GDP in the fourth quarter was higher than in the European Union. Inflation over the past month has grown less than in the European Union. The British economy is less dependent on the Ukrainian crisis and the Russian economy than the economy of the European Union. The Bank of England has raised the interest rate three times already and will do so at least once more this year, which is higher and more than even the Fed. Not to mention the ECB.
Thus, I cannot say that all the factors are now against the Briton. Nevertheless, the pound shows no less strong decline than the same euro. I believe that traders are now paying more attention to geopolitics. And this week, all the events can be described with the following phrase: the intensification of the sanctions war between the West and Russia. The UK itself imposed new sanctions, which mainly concerned the freezing of assets of Russian oligarchs, but the countries of the European Union and the United States continue to take much tougher measures. However, the UK is not a separate, isolated country. One way or another, the military crisis, the food crisis, and the energy crisis affect it as well. Prices are rising for raw materials, oil, and gas, and this applies to Britain to the same extent as the European Union and America. In addition, in difficult times, traders prefer to deal with the most stable financial instruments and currencies. These primarily include the dollar. And this is the main reason for its growth over the past 5-6 weeks.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a drop to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3044). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the British and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3274). However, it is more likely that the pair will close below the level of 1.3044, which will allow it to continue the process of falling towards the level of 1.2860. The descending trend line characterizes the mood of traders as "bearish" and everything will remain above it until the pair closes.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has not changed much over the last reporting week. The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 2,129, and the number of short contracts increased by 697. Thus, the general mood of the major players has become even more "bearish". The ratio between the number of long and short contracts for speculators already corresponds to the real state of things - longs are 2.5 times more than shorts. The British dollar is falling, and the big players are selling the pound more than buying it. Thus, I expect the pound to continue its decline. This forecast is based on geopolitics and based on COT reports.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
On Friday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US do not contain a single important entry. There wasn't much geopolitical news today either. There is no influence of the information background on the mood of traders today.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I now recommend selling the British dollar with targets of 1.2980 and 1.2895, if consolidation is performed below the level of 1.3044 on the 4-hour chart. I recommend buying the British when closing above the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3181 and 1.3274.
