According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday performed the third drop in the last two weeks to the level of 1.2980, a new rebound, and began a new growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.3071). In recent weeks, the pair does not like to trade above this level, so I expect a rebound from it and a fourth drop to the level of 1.2980. Fixing the pair's rate at 1.2980 will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the next corrective level of 261.8% (1.2895). Meanwhile, there is an information lull in the UK. Almost all the news concerns politics, new sanctions against the Russian Federation, and new weapons for Ukraine. Boris Johnson, who again came under a barrage of criticism in Parliament for his parties at the height of the coronavirus pandemic and lockdown, promised to provide Ukraine with almost any weapons. In particular, now artillery and heavy, armored weapons are expected from partner countries to confront Russia and Ukraine since the conflict has shifted to the East of this country. According to representatives of President Zelensky's cabinet, up to 100,000 Russian soldiers are currently concentrated there.
Arms supplies via Poland arrive in Ukraine almost every day. Just yesterday, 7 cargo planes from the United States landed in Poland, transporting military equipment and weapons. Thus, Kyiv is currently waiting. Negotiations are frozen, the offensive actions of the Russian Federation will sooner or later run out, and when the Russian army stops, then Ukraine can go on a counteroffensive. With new weapons, armored vehicles, and new planes. Unfortunately, this means that this conflict may drag on for another 5-6 months. This is the conclusion reached by representatives of Western intelligence. The battle in the Donbas may last about 2 months, after which both sides will take their positions and put them under protection, and only after that Ukraine will go to win back its lands. All this time, the British and the Europeans can continue a not too rapid fall.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a reversal in favor of the UK currency and anchored above the descending trend line. And the "bearish" divergence of the CSI indicator allowed the pair to return to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3044), and then close below it. Nevertheless, now the pair can neither continue the process of falling nor begin the process of growth. We are waiting for developments.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has changed a lot over the past week. The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 359, and the number of short contracts increased by 10,937. Thus, the general mood of the major players has become much more "bearish". The ratio between the number of long and short contracts for speculators still corresponds to the real state of things on the market - longs are 2.5 times more than shorts. The big players continue to get rid of the pound. Thus, I expect the pound to continue its decline. This forecast is made based on geopolitics, based on COT reports, and based on graphical analysis.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - FOMC member Charles Evans will deliver a speech (16:05 UTC).
US - FOMC member Mary Daly will give a speech (14:30 UTC).
US - publication of the Fed's economic review by region "Beige Book" (18:00 UTC).
On Wednesday, the calendar of economic events in the UK is empty. Charles Evans and Mary Daly will perform in America today. The speech of the latter may cause a lot of attention, but in general, I believe that the influence of the information background on the mood of traders today will be weak.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommended selling the pound with a target of 1.2980 if a rebound from the level of 1.3071 is performed on the hourly chart. Now it is possible to sell the pound again for the same purpose with a new rebound from 1.3071. I recommended buying the British when rebounding from the 1.2980 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3071. Now, these deals can be closed.
