For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require adjustments. The downward section of the trend continues its construction within the framework of the wave e-E, and its internal wave marking looks quite difficult - correction waves are practically not viewed in it, so it is very difficult to determine which internal wave is being built now. This wave will not be shortened. Demand for the British continues to fall, and wave e already looks quite long. However, wave e-E is the last wave of the current downtrend segment. The entire site is either nearing completion of its construction, or it will have to take a much more complex and extended form. Everything will depend in the coming weeks on the news background, which is now clearly divided into geopolitical and economic. The military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, according to many military analysts, may persist not just for months, but for years. The consequences for the European and British economies will be serious. From an economic point of view, the Bank of England looks weaker in its desire to tighten the PEPP than the Fed. But still, these two factors cannot permanently lower the demand for the pound.
The market is massively running out of the pound while there is such an opportunity.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument decreased by another 100 basis points on April 28. Thus, the overall decline of the instrument continues, although today there was no news background in the UK again. Moreover, the US GDP report turned out to be very weak, much weaker than market expectations, but even this did not lead to a decline in the US currency. I believe that the market is now in some way enjoying the "last days" when you can almost mindlessly sell the pound and make a profit. The wave marking indicates that the wave e-E may end any day now. I don't see any reasons for its complication yet. The market squeezed out of those factors and news negative for the British, everything it could. Of course, the decline can continue as long as you want, in theory. But I still believe that it cannot be infinite. This week, the market showed that even if there is no reason, it still sells the pound.
In the UK, a survey of businesses and consumers by Sharply was conducted, which showed that the pound sterling may well fall to $ 1.21. Survey data show a consumer goods crisis, high inflation, and serious concerns for the British economy. Business optimism and consumer expectations are declining. The majority of economists surveyed believe that the Bank of England should take a more balanced approach to the issue of adjusting monetary policy. Although earlier the Bank of England made it clear that it was ready to raise the rate to 1%, now this decision looks doubtful. The European, British, and American economies have begun to react to even greater disruption of logistics in the world, to sanctions that act in both directions, to an increase in the cost of energy resources, which causes a strong increase in inflation. In such circumstances, raising the interest rate is not the safest solution for the economy.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the construction of wave E. I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.2246 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci, according to the MACD signals "down". However, I no longer see a pound below this mark. From my point of view, the construction of a downward trend section is nearing its completion.
At the higher scale, wave D looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, I still expect a continuation of the decline of the instrument with targets located around the 22nd figure. Wave E takes on a five-wave appearance but still doesn't look fully equipped. However, it already takes a little time to complete the complete set.
