Analysis of Monday's deals:30M chart of the EUR/USD pair.
The EUR/USD currency pair did not show anything special on Monday. In principle, this is not surprising, since Mondays often turn out to be "boring". The pair has been in a frank side channel for more than a week, so there was practically no chance of getting out of it on a day when no important event or report was planned. As a result, the euro/dollar pair today showed volatility equal to "only" 80 points. This is quite a high value. Recall that since six months ago, the pair has been trading with a volatility of 40-50 points for several months, and the value of 60 points is considered average. Thus, according to the results of Monday, no new conclusions can be made. The pair remains inside the side channel and at the same time maintains a downward trend, and cannot correct normally. We are still waiting for an upward correction to begin, but traders seem to need some time to rest and realize the current disposition. The situation is unlikely to change tomorrow, as macroeconomic events are not planned again.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair.
In a 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture looks very simple. During the day, the pair was not able to work out any of the levels once, so not a single trading signal was formed. Twice it came close to the levels, but both times it did not reach them 4-5 points. Therefore, these "failures" could not be considered signals with an error. As a result, there was movement inside the side channel all day and nothing changed. The European currency is still completely out of demand. It should be noted that there are really few factors for buying it now, but market participants cannot sell it forever either. Sellers should sooner or later start taking profits on their positions, which should already lead to a noticeable upward correction. But so far there is no such thing. And if a new batch of disappointing news arrives, the euro is still quite capable of resuming its decline.
How to trade on Tuesday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, the trend remains downward, despite the flat formed. We believe that the fall may resume at any moment, but we draw the attention of newcomers to the fact that the euro currency has been falling for quite a long time and the correction will begin sooner or later. However, it may start late, not early. There is not much left to the 20-year lows of the pair, and the fundamental background for the euro continues to leave the best. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.0369, 1.0471-1.0490, 1.0578-1.0593, 1.0636, and 1.0697. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. On Tuesday, the European Union will publish an index of business sentiment from the ZEW Institute. There will be speeches by several representatives of the Fed in America, but these are not the events that can provoke strong movements in the market. Now the pair needs to leave the side channel, but it may take quite a long time.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to generate the signal (rebound or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened near a certain level on false signals, then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade transactions are opened in the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session when all transactions must be closed manually.
5) On a 30-minute TF, signals from the MACD indicator can be traded only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
What's on the charts:
Price support and resistance levels - target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) - a histogram and a signal line - an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a signal source.
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Forex beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over a long period.
